ArtifactBin Midterms Analysis - Prediction markets vs polls head-to-head
Show HN: Did prediction markets do any predicting this midterms?
This Show HN project by nuwandavek puts prediction markets to the test against traditional polling and Nate Silver's FLIPR model for the midterms. Hosted on ArtifactBin, the analysis compares how well each approach called flipped or close-by-polls races, finding that prediction markets offered no real edge—just a wash. It's a data-driven reality check for anyone who treats market odds as a guiding light, suggesting we might see them more as entertainment than oracle. The linked page couldn't be fetched, but the Hacker News discussion captures the core findings and debate.
When put head to head against polls or Nate Silver's FLIPR model, they are really a wash—especially in flipped or close-by-polls races, there is no alpha compared to a traditional poll-based model.
- shizcakes
What’s with the mouse cursors? I can barely read this on mobile because it’s covered with “guest” pointers
- glimshe
We should permanently rename "prediction markets" to "betting markets".
People linked to them came up with the "prediction" nonsense to sound modern and technological as a way to dissociate themselves from the life/family destroying gambling of old.
But they are gambling, pure and simple, with no value to society.
- Shank
I really think the main factor in determining if prediction markets are valuable is their predictions from outside election day. Once the “blue tsunami” was “expected” most of the markets shot overwhelmingly in one direction as the night wrapped up. You need to have a boundary for comparison that isn’t influenced by election night. Starting at 5AM is a decent cut point but I would argue the final poll date is the best comparison.
Love or hate PolyMarket, it should be on this list too.