AI models can't tell which research actually matters, and that's a problem for autonomous R&D
I struggle to believe that AI R&D is ingenious
Arjun Panickssery tested models like Astra on side projects — a Scrabble engine, an Ultimate Tic-Tac-Toe bot, and a philosophy wiki — and found their judgment poor in basic ways. They miss the obviously important papers, run experiments too small to distinguish anything, and wander into trivial directions. One commenter notes models still double a quant hedge fund's R&D productivity by implementing experiments fast, while another doubts lab insiders' claims that internal models are far ahead.
It actually located the blog post but didn't realize its importance or relevance over papers from previous years that are obviously less relevant.
- intenex
I'm surprised I'm not seeing anyone bring up the fact that the internal models used by the frontier labs are light years ahead of the public models we have - in the latest METR report, we're three generations behind - there's still an unreleased model from July!
And the latest model that they measured, which is already behind the newest model they're now working on, has an insane jump in capabilities: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1xorf5c/metr_r...
This is easy for us to empirically verify with some back of the envelope math - OpenAI's internal model that solved Navier-Stokes ~2 months ago required 10,000 agents running for 88 hours, or 880,000 total hours, to solve it. A month later, when they dropped the 722 math proofs with some truly stunning results like UGC in there, it took just a single agent an average of 3 hours to get those results. Granted, the results aren't on the same caliber, but some of them genuinely are insane - and even if you knock off multiple digits off the 300,000x speedup there, you're still getting some insane acceleration in capabilities.
And then of course ETH was disproved, and Anthropic claimed it took just 14 million output tokens to do this with their internal research model.
Put simply, the models the frontier labs are using to speed up R&D autonomously that are making them believe RSI is imminent look nothing like the outdated models we have publicly available to us. Saying that the models today don't look like they would do a […]
- mangecoeur
Llms are far from being ingenious or innovative. The main way they can surprise you today is pulling in information that’s new TO YOU - I impressed with the algorithms they pop out sometimes simply because never formally studied compsci. But when it treads on my home turf I find it very basic, and for bigger picture stuff like system architecture its terrible, by its nature it doesn’t have a “vision” of how the whole system fits together
- ainch
This matches my instincts too. When trying to debug ML learning pipelines or research projects, LLM suggestions I've received are almost always techically correct, but they point out small, tedious details which don't really matter. In my experience, they miss the forest for the trees.
I'm bearish that continued scaling will fully solve this. In the meantime though, as a commentor in the OP points out - by solving the menial stuff (building diagnostic tools, producing visualisations, scaffolding experiments) they're still proving to be extremely useful research assistants.
- nfw2
I've also found it very hard to leave AI agents up to their own devices for long periods and get much productive benefit from it.
I suppose it's possible that frontier labs have internal models that are so far beyond that autonomous research becomes possible, but I'm not sure that's it.
It seems to me like these models are like a very competent, important part of some hypothetical digital brain, but alone they don't have all the facilities they need to be useful, like a genius with severe ADHD and short-term memory loss.
For anything where quality isn't objective in a clear-cut way, very intentional context management is needed to get good outputs. As context size expands, performance degrades. As the number of tasks increases, performance degrees. As the number of independent decisions based on subjective criteria increases, performance degrees.
If you can get a harness that makes sure every decision is made one at a time, focused with only the context it needs, things work great. But making those harnesses is still hard, a lot of work, and something that agents seem to have no clue how to help you with.
- rcxdude
It does seem like they are much better in the small as opposed to the large. I agree on the judgement being questionable, and every report on making large swarms seems to suggest it's relying on spectacularly diminishing returns on the performance of a single agent, especially a single agent with a human in the loop.
- p1necone
On one hand, yeah, I agree.
On the other hand, using AI to trawl through all the grunt work, experiments, and well trodden areas means I can crawl up pretty close to that giants shoulder and spend way less effort myself answering the actually important questions so I can stand on it.
(This isn't supposed to sound self aggrandising - the giants whose shoulders I'm standing on aren't very tall, and they probably have bigger brothers and sisters, but the idiom was too good of a match to pass up using)
- skew-aberration
Using Fabel to improve some non-AI ML models a while back, I had a similar result - it could implement perfectly any suggestion I made, but it could not work autonomously due to making very poor suggestions itself, or getting distracted by the wrong things, making dumb assumptions, failing to see the big picture, etc.
These seem pretty easy to solve problems though if I could just afford 100 or 1000 agents. Let them explore and compete and work out their errors for themselves.
At a practical level though, I do a lot more 'bonus' R&D work now by just keeping the agents running and testing ideas in the background.
- MiliasGeiger
> In all of these cases, the model's judgment is just very poor in a basic way.
This sentence resonated strongly with me. Not just in R&D but in every single interaction with the model. From Fable all the way to Sonnet they all very clearly show just zero judgement unless the answer was already seen during training.