AI Didn't Kill Tech Jobs, but It's Why Hiring Never Recovered
AI didn't cause the tech jobs bust, but it explains why there's no recovery
Tech payrolls sit 12% below their November 2022 peak, yet software-developer job postings peaked in February 2022 — nine months before ChatGPT launched. So AI didn't cause the bust; the timing rules that out. What AI does explain is the shape of the non-recovery: 71% of the rebound in developer postings went to senior roles, 56% of active tech postings now demand AI skills, and junior hiring simply hasn't come back.
AI did not cause the tech jobs bust. The timing rules it out. But AI is the best available explanation for why the bust is not ending the way busts usually end, and for who is paying for it.