The 1960 Doomsday Prediction That Got the Math Right and the Future Wrong
Demographic "Doomsday" Misses the Mark
In 1960, Heinz von Foerster and colleagues used a hyperbolic growth model to predict a population singularity on 13 November 2026—von Foerster's own birthday. The date is nearly here and no singularity is in sight. The model wasn't mathematically wrong; it captured a real acceleration. The error was mistaking a fleeting demographic boom for a timeless law, a mistake that also haunts today's AI scaling forecasts and depopulation panics.
The difficulty was elevating transient demographic changes into timeless universal laws.
- daoboy
I've got whiplash from the speed at which we've jumped from overpopulation doomsday to demographic degrowth doomsday.
It seems likely we lend too much credence to experts ability to model complex systems over a long period of time.
- ddoolin
Sounds like we could use a psychohistory expert.
- samayashar
This scares me to be honest. We have an exponentially decaying graph if we compare resources on y v/s consumption on x. I don't know what the next 50 years are going to bring considering the total resources to use on Earth are an "infinite constant".
- somewhereoutth
With a top heavy population pyramid, more resources have to be diverted to caring for the elderly, therefore less for raising the young - a self reinforcing mechanism.
When actually given the choice, many women are choosing not to have children, for good reasons. E.g. disruption of careers, physical effects on the body, being tied to a partner, financial drain.
Until we face up to both these issues, demographic collapse will continue - humanity will simply evaporate.
- DemocracyFTW2
the planet will be devoid of people on Tuesday, 5 May 3108
Der letzte macht das Licht aus.