LLMs Aren't Inevitable, and Here's Why
AI boosters often claim LLMs are inevitable, but this argument falls apart under scrutiny. By comparing LLMs to truly inevitable technologies like firearms, the author shows that LLMs fail key criteria: they can't produce top-quality work, their efficiency gains are modest, and they face widespread social backlash. The piece argues that LLM adoption is a contingent choice, not an unavoidable fate.
I cannot help but feel that if there were a real overmatch in capability, we would very much have seen it so far. There would be at least one tech company producing five to ten times as many new tech products as anyone else and slowly forcing everyone else out of the market. We have not seen this: in fact, what we have seen is that the companies that have been going all in on AI have been struggling more than the others.