AI is quietly hollowing out the job market, and the next downturn could make it permanent
AI, Work, and the Next Downturn
Labor's share of US business output has fallen to its lowest since 1947, and 107% of net job growth since August 2024 came from health care and social assistance. A new site tracks 29 indicators, 8 already triggered, and models a dot-com-sized bust that could leave 24% of the US workforce out of work by 2032. It argues income is shifting from wages to owners of land, location, and power.
If that reading is right, the model puts 14–16% of the US workforce out of work by the end of 2028, against 10% in its central case.
- xnx
Everyone likes to think they live in a particularly consequential point in history, but I don't see how things can continue on their current trajectory (economic, political, societal, environmental, etc.).
- elzbardico
Kind of fucking ironic to use AI to write that.
Yeah, either way we're fucked economically with AI: at one side we have a fucking giant bubble crashing, and on the other side we have the mother of all recessions due to the biggest deflationary event ever.
Every fucking decent economist knows that even when he is telling otherwise to keep the porridge coming to his table; but you using AI to say it, it is just fucking bad taste.
- mxuribe
Sheesh! I mean, after reading this I'm surprized they didn't also add something like the following...
* Correlated to some of these findings, crime is estimated to rise extremely sharply in the coming years, especially bank robberies and ramraid-style theft from retail stores.
* The only industries expected to grow during this and upcoming periods include manufacturers of police batons and other riot gear, bricks, and gas masks....the latter two often used by protesters.
/s