CIA Model Puts the U.S. in the Highest-Risk Category for Civil War or Coup

U.S. in Highest-Risk Category for Civil War, Coup, or Collapse in CIA Model

A political scientist applied the CIA's instability forecasting model to the United States, which the agency is legally barred from studying. The model, over 80% accurate two years out, identifies partial democracy with deep factionalism as the highest-risk regime type. The U.S. now scores as an anocracy on Polity and has been downgraded by V-Dem, placing it in that danger zone. The author argues this makes breakup or secession worth considering.