Release Oracle predicts AI model launch dates using Polymarket data

Predicting AI model release dates with stats

Release Oracle is a new site that turns Polymarket prediction-market prices into concrete release forecasts for upcoming AI models. It tracks the next Kimi K model and 15 others, showing a market median date, a middle-50% uncertainty window, and the probability of release within a week or a month. The methodology converts each 'released by date?' contract into a point on a cumulative probability curve, corrects inconsistencies, and interpolates the 50% crossing for the headline date. Historical charts show how forecasts have moved over the past six months.