Heinz von Foerster Predicted Human Population Would Hit Infinity on Friday, 13 November, 2026
Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026 (1960)
In a 1960 Science paper, Heinz von Foerster and his University of Illinois colleagues Patricia Mora and Lawrence Amiot fit world population data from the previous two millennia and found it accelerating toward a mathematical singularity. If the trend held, population would approach infinity on Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026. The paper's tongue-in-cheek framing earned lasting fame — and a fresh wave of attention as that date finally arrives.
At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has grown in the last two millenia.
- franze
Well ...
ATCSCC Advisory
ATCSCC 111 DCC 11/13/2026 NATIONAL GROUND STOP
EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400
DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY.
ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION
COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING
TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND
INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS
- dnlgrmm
Beautifully shows how most predictions that extrapolate from past data are too simplistic. We're approaching peak global population and almost all industrialized nations are more worried about population decline than overpopulation these days. Which is why I'm not worried about superintelligence or data centers in space.
- chiph
Overpopulation was a big topic in the early 1970's, with competing dire predictions.
If you haven't watched it, Soylent Green with Edward G Robinson and Charlton Heston is an illustration of this (no spoilers please!) It was based on Harry Harrison's novel Make Room, Make Room where population growth was out of control, and human life was worth so little that the police used mechanical scoops to clear rioters from the streets.
And then on the other side, we have Blade Runner where Earth's population is declining because of off-world colonization and replicants are created for labor.
- parsabg
This trending on HN right now might tell us more about our current state of mind than the people in the 60s'.
- MeteorMarc
Approaches infinity has little meaning. Every semimonotonous series of numbers approaches infinity: you can never say that you are a factor 100 off.
- iconici
Well they were not wrong about the sense of doom in the air.
Are we on the cusp of RSI? No one is being public about when RSI get started, and possibly the first few improvements will be very small. It's unclear if it can accelerate or not.
Anyone have any specific papers on RSI recent progress? What specific vectors of improvement it would focus on first?
- buybackoff
Anton Petrov had an episode on this 3 weeks ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3h_aeB4TPxo
- bananaflag
Relevant: https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/04/22/1960-the-year-the-sing...
- orsorna
I thought the concept of sigmoid curves modeling population was well known at that point in 1960. Perhaps human exceptionalism meant people thought it wouldn't apply to us.
- dang
I seem to recall a recently submitted article about the dangers of extrapolation, related to population trends. Can't find it now. Anyone?