My Great-Great-Grandfather Thought Technology Would Replace Him Too
The last time my family was replaced by technology
A farrier in rural France watched a car roll through the next town and soon became a mechanic, keeping his purpose of helping people get around. The author, surrounded by developers anxious about AI, finds comfort in this family story. The real driver, he suggests, was never the code but the joy of making things and solving problems. Be willing to let go of the how to hold on to the why.
- megalomanu
Author here! Thanks for all the comments. This post isn't meant as a lesson or a judgment, something to tell "just shut up and adapt like my ancestor did". The situation is hard, and I wasn't trying to dismiss anyone's anxiety. No one wants to hear "you'll be fine" when something bad just happened.
It's mostly a personal story. You can see it as a kind of tribute to a great-great-grandfather I never met, partly because I'd never heard a story like it before. It's banal but still a big adventure in the family. I find it fascinating that he grew up in a completely different world from mine and still felt some of the same doubts and anxieties I do today. And I'm really proud of him, because his "pivot" let my family stay in the village instead of maybe leaving to work in factories in the city. My father loved his job, and in a way that's thanks to him.
- bhelkey
There is a quote from a CGP Grey video from a bit over a decade ago, "There isn't a rule of economics that says better technology makes more, better jobs for horses. It sounds shockingly dumb to even say that out loud, but swap horses for humans and suddenly people think it sounds about right." [1]
A couple hundred years ago, something like 70% of the population worked in agriculture. Technology replaced almost all of these jobs.
So far, we have reimagined old professions and created brand new ones. Is this ability of ours limitless?
- harimau777
Have any of these articles actually addressed HOW software developers are supposed to retrain for good jobs? Personally I have neither the money nor the years to go back to college to get a livable job.
- mrbonner
I’ve been coding for over 20 years. I may not be the perfect coder, but for me, the real goal has always been solving problems and coding is just a side effect. If I could solve an operational problem with Excel, I would! Code, once created, is a liability I have to carry.
So I’m embracing AI-assisted coding with open arms. It’s not that I don’t enjoy coding. it’s that this approach lets me solve problems faster than ever before.
- zug_zug
And my great great grandpa thought horses would lose all their jobs to cars. And they all did and it was never the same again.
There’s no quick answers, but intuitively I think we all get that the % of jobs not doable by AI and robotics approaches 0 over time.
- soundworlds
I am already seeing more companies hire people who are developer-adjacent, especially now with AI-assistance.
I don't think software developers are going away, but likely headed more in-house, as each company can cheaply have bespoke software made and maintained.
- markus_zhang
Other than Uber and Uber eats, I can’t imagine myself doing anything other than those. I might get a security guard certificate and guard empty halls during the night, which quite suits me.
Not a handyman, not suitable for physical jobs, I think I’m cooked! This is the fear that is always on my head.
- alimail
The grandfather must also have survived two world wars. The transition from horse to cars happened within a broader context and was greased by blood.
I find it curious that this is often elided when discussing technological transition. Sure the whip makers went away but they probably also ended up dead in a trench.
- hn9zmdcaou
My grandad ran a small letterpress shop and when phototypesetting came in he didn't retrain, he just did smaller and smaller jobs until it was wedding invitations.
- Havoc
I don’t particularly like the horse to engine angle because it doesn’t capture the issue well.
When we automated physical activity people that were crowded out moved into knowledge work. Now we’re automating knowledge work so people move into ???
Leisure? Become a useless class? UBI? Something else entirely?