Tell HN: AGI Is Here
I believe AGI is already here for over 90% of humanity, even if it doesn't meet strict definitions. People are already acting as if it exists and using it accordingly. I think we need to start addressing the safety and deployment challenges we've postponed for years, because this technology will only improve and the landscape will change dramatically within five years.
Whether by your strict definition or not AGI is here is immaterial. For 90%+ of humanity AGI is here _today_, they act like it does and they use it as if it is.
Geoffrey Hinton in a recent interview said that according to him it is still a year or so out, but that seems to ignore the fact that he's one of the smartest people on the planet, so he is one of the last to be 'caught up with'.
If you have the knowledge of a very significant fraction of humanity at your fingertips, reasonably strong reasoning abilities, if you can speedread at 1500 words / minute without dropping a beat and if you can write at 200+ characters _per second_ you can get more done in an hour than a normal person can get done in a day.
So I would suggest we start thinking about how to do all those things that we should have done _years_ ago (such as to create ways to safely deploy this tech) now.
It's not going to go away, like every other technology bad version 1.0 will give way to much improved version 2.0 and so on, and in five years time you won't recognize the landscape.
Stop waiting for 'your' AGI. You most likely are in that top 10%.