Half of the world's glaciers could vanish by mid-century, new interactive map shows
Global Glacier Extinction Explorer
A new interactive map tracks the fate of every individual glacier on Earth, not just regional ice loss. Using three global glacier models and multiple climate scenarios, researchers project median extinction years for each glacier, defined as shrinking below 0.01 km² or losing 99% of initial volume. Results highlight peak extinction in the mid-21st century and are publicly available on Zenodo, with the map built using open-source tools like MapLibre and PMTiles.
A glacier is considered disappeared (extinct) when its area drops below 0.01 km², consistent with commonly used inventory thresholds, or when its remaining volume falls below 1% of its initial value, indicating that only a negligible ice body persists.
- davely
In 2004, I visited New Zealand. It was my first international trip as part of a 6 week long geology field camp. One of the coolest experiences was getting to visit the Fox Glacier and Franz Josef Glacier on the South Island.
Checking this out, I don't see the Fox Glacier or Franz Josef Glacier specifically listed in the search field, but moving the map around, I was able to find the ice fields.
I see that they both will "survive" to 2100, but I wonder in what state. Check out this time lapse video from 2013 to 2018 showing the Franz Josef Glacier's drastic retreat! [3]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_Josef_Glacier
- Aditya_0315
Reviewed this and it is quite impressive. The map adds much more reality to the data as opposed to regular climate maps. The one feature that I think would be awesome to add would be an interactivity layer to the bottom-right panel indicating the extinction years where you can click or hover over the warming period to view the affected glaciers on the map and their numbers.
- a1371
I don't understand why a glacier would survive longer in the 4°C scenario than 2.5°C but this seems to suggest so.
- ourmandave
There was an episode of Northern Exposure where an entire frozen mammoth was exposed. Before the main character could report this amazing find to anyone to be preserved in a museum one of the locals dragged it to house and butchered it for steaks.
- mbty
Okjökull is considered extinct, yet according to this website it should survive until the 2070s at least? It also gives 2079 for 1.5°C vs. 2075 for 2.7°C (I know that the local dynamic is not the same as the global one, but still).