Super El Niño Set to Drive a Major Winter Weather Divide

Winter 2026/2027 First Forecast: Super El Niño Drives a Major Weather Divide

A powerful Super El Niño is building in the tropical Pacific, with ocean temperatures already exceeding the threshold for a historic event. Forecast models now project it could rank among the strongest on record, promising a winter of stark contrasts. Drawing on historical analogs and the latest seasonal forecasts, this analysis reveals a split-flow pattern: a deep Aleutian Low and a strong Canadian ridge will likely bring warmer, drier conditions to northern North America while fueling an active storm track across the southern U.S. Europe, meanwhile, can expect mild westerly flow and below-normal snowfall, except in the far north.