AI Will Collapse Like the Dot-Com Bubble
Prediction: AI Will Collapse
Drawing a parallel to the dot-com bubble, this post argues that the current AI boom will similarly collapse as it overestimates the demand for coding agents. The author contends that while everyone will use agents, less than 1% will use coding agents, just as everyone has a social media page but few have personal websites. The key insight is that consumer agents must be 'idiotproof' sandboxes with zero chance of failure, usable in any state of mind, and impossible to misuse. Achieving this requires radical innovation, not just better models.
Every human will use agents. But less than 1% will use coding agents.
- jsnell
> In the same way that YouTube videos have a 0% chance of phishing, cross-site scripting, malware, and viruses.
So, the same as in not actually 0%? Even though the video streams themselves were never used for attacks[0], the contents of the videos frequently have been. The closest analogue to phishing would be the fake "SpaceX launch" streams that were actually a carrier for a crypto scam payload. Or for malware, it doesn't matter that the video itself wasn't malware as long as a video showing a fake Fortnite hack could get the viewer to install malware thinking they got the hack.
AI agents need to be substantially better than humans at this, but they don't need to be perfect.
[0] As far as I know! It seems very hard to smuggle a vuln past the transcoding, but I guess technically possible.
- djoldman
> It must be impossible for AI to: make purchases you did not intend, send messages you did not intend, and access information you did not want to share.
Hrm. I'd say that all of these things are possible when using services of companies that are valued at billions/trillions in the stock market. So "impossible" might be too strict.
- AnimalMuppet
The actual post doesn't really match the title, unless we're talking about AI stocks, which it didn't go into much.
The real point is that AI agents, for people rather than for coders, must be 100% bulletproof. As the post said, people have to be able to use them while drunk. They have to be able to use them while distracted.
Coding agents? The users are, presumably, both sober and paying attention. The general public? They won't be.