Data Tampering Alleged in Influential Procrastination Study
Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Study About Procrastination
A new paper in Psychological Science reports a failure to replicate Study 2 of Ariely and Wertenbroch's 2002 study on procrastination and deadlines. The original study, with over 2,100 citations, found that evenly spaced deadlines improved performance. However, an analysis of the original data files, obtained from Dan Ariely, reveals four major red flags, including implausibly large effects, duplicate observations, and missing correlations. The authors conclude the data were tampered with and present evidence for readers to evaluate.
We conclude that the data in Studies 1 and 2 were tampered with.
- Aurornis
Dan Ariely has a long history of controversies and studies with falsified data. He wrote 3 popular books and gained a lot of fame before others started uncovering the problems in his studies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Ariely
It’s amazing that problems with his studies are still being uncovered. Equally amazing that Duke still maintains a relationship with him after so many problems have been identified with his research.
- bawolff
It does seem like its way too easy to do this kind of fraud.
The study seems extremely easy to replicate (no fancy equipment needed, just ask some people to proofread), and yet nobody did until now. Is there some way to change incentives to get people to try and replicate? Assign undergrads to replicate random research papers?
- herewulf
I came here for a procrastination joke comment and didn't find it, but I suppose someone will get around to it eventually.
- freediddy
No paper should ever be referenced until it has been replicated by an independent group. The replication crisis in science is real, and it won't take long for no one to believe anything anymore.
- sabot90260
Figures, even the studies about procrastination are fraught with issues. Guess I'll put off reading the details until tomorrow.
- mulanroo
One thing I didn't know before reading this: an unusually large effect size can itself be a red flag. You don't have to understand all the statistics to at least notice when a result looks almost too good to be true.
- keyle
I'm glad the authors seem to have acknowledged the problem and not doing much about it :-)
- hnacct2001
Having skimmed this article and the replication study itself (which references some studies that complicate our common understanding of the positive effects of deadlines) I’m left wondering what the constructive alternative is to deadlines and/or how deadlines should be maintained or determined.