Himalayan glacial lake floods could hit Nepal with 15 times the force ever seen
Worst-case glacial lake flood scenarios in a transboundary Himalayan basin 2022
A new study in the transboundary Himalayan basin of Nyalam, Tibet, models worst-case glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from two dangerous lakes, Galongco and Jialongco, and a potential future lake. Large rock or ice avalanches could trigger floods at the Nepal border over 15 times larger than any previously observed or anticipated from gradual dam breaches. Warning times would be just 5–11 minutes in Nyalam and 30 minutes at the border. The authors call for integrated disaster risk management combining early warning systems, land-use zoning, and community response capacity.
Large (>20×10^6 m3) rock and/or ice avalanches could generate GLOF discharges at the border with Nepal that are more than 15 times larger than what has been observed previously or anticipated based on more gradual breach simulations.