H-1B Visas Boost Incomes for Native Workers, New NBER Study Finds
Long-Run Effects of H-1B Immigration on the U.S. Economy (July 2026)
A new NBER working paper by Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, Ahmet Gulek, and Jens Hainmueller examines the long-run effects of H-1B immigration on the U.S. economy. Using the 1999–2003 visa cap expansion, the authors find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. The effects propagate downstream through supply chains, suggesting a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock, with no direct effect on patenting.
Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock.
- ryzvonusef
> ABSTRACT
> We study the effects of H-1B immigration on U.S. industries that employ H-1B workers and their trading partners. Using a novel cross-industry design and the 1999–2003 expansion of the H-1B visa cap for identification, we find that H-1B exposure raised incomes for natives and pre-existing immigrants, with gains concentrated in non-STEM occupations. Income gains propagate forward through supply chains to downstream industries but not backward to upstream industries, consistent with a productivity shock rather than a labor supply shock. We find no direct effect on patenting, suggesting that productivity gains arise from better task execution rather than patentable invention.
- socalgal2
Picked just 4 years? That sounds awfully sus. Like if you include 1998 or 2005 to the numbers still hold? How about 1990 to 2025? I'm not saying they are wrong, in fact I want to believe they are right. But so many econ papers are easy to tear down just by including a little more data.
- tancop
H-1B is not bad because its taking Americans jobs. Its bad because the rules make it easy to abuse workers by threatening them with deportation if they act up. Scrap the whole program and make it a lot easier to get normal work visa that are not bound to an employer.