Is AI Reasoning Right for the Wrong Reasons?

What an asshole:

On the other side of the AI-reasoning fence, the disdain seems to be mutual. “These ‘scientific’ papers from last summer — I would put this in big, big air quotes,” said Sébastien Bubeck, a member of OpenAI’s technical staff (and a prominent evangelist for the company’s reasoning models among scientists and mathematicians). He called earlier Apple results critiquing AI reasoning “wrong,” claiming that they were due to a training quirk in models that are now obsolete. “Modern models starting with GPT-5.5 do not suffer from this issue,” he said. “It would be interesting to revisit those results.” (Apple did not make its researchers available for interviews.)

Then, later:

The “think” part is what OpenAI, for one, is doubling down on. When I asked Bubeck if the splashy unit distance proof was produced with methods outside the LRM’s own chain of thought — perhaps with Lean verifying its results — he seemed to find the question almost nonsensical.

“It’s not like we’re making a mystery of it,” he said. “We have released the chain of thought. You can just go and look at it. The whole point is that the model is reasoning like a human would. And when humans reason, we don’t use Lean.” Technically, OpenAI released a “rewritten summary” of the model’s chain of thought produced by two human experts using Codex, another OpenAI model. Since 2024, the company has not publicly revealed “raw” chains of thought from its reasoning models, a policy also adopted by Google […]

Back in the day it was a bit of a cliche to bring up “clever Hans”, the horse that could do math, when talking about machine learning. He couldn’t do math but he read some cues from his handler of pick the write answers, the handler iirc wasn’t in on it.

The point of the story was that classifiers can be right for the wrong reasons and almost inevitably are. At least there’s zero guarantee that the reason for making the prediction matches the human or “real” reason why it’s correct.

LLMs are classifiers, there is absolutely no reason to assume they’re any different, regardless of any reasoning tokens they emit. They do what their handler wants to see, that’s all, and that’s what they’re trained to do.

People often take this as a knock against them. It isn’t, it’s just the reality of neural network classifiers. The results speak for themselves and don’t depend on whether they “actually” reason, but all evidence says they don’t, or at least there’s no special reason why they would.

LLMs lack qualia, among other things.

If I ask an LLM "what is an apple?" it tells me:

> An apple is the edible fruit of the apple tree, scientifically known as Malus domestica. It is one of the world's most widely grown fruits and is eaten fresh or used in many foods and drinks.

If I ask an LLM "what is a mundu fruit?" it tells me:

> Mundu is a tropical fruit native to Southeast Asia, especially found in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia. It comes from a small evergreen tree in the same genus as mangosteen.

I've never eaten a mundu fruit. To me, an apple and a mundu fruit are categorically different. An apple is a fruit that I've held, touched, tasted, eaten, enjoyed, cooked with. A mundu fruit is an abstract experience: text, images, only slightly more real than a fictional fruit. I'm aware that mundu fruit exist, just as the LLM is aware the apples exist, but that doesn't make them exist for me.

"Existing in an abstract way" is how an LLM experiences everything. To an LLM, an apple and a mundu fruit are in the same category. The LLM has been trained on text about both fruit, it's seen images of both fruit, it knows everything that has been recorded about both fruit ...except everything that's important to know about a fruit.

Many of our issues with LLMs arise because from the LLM's perspective, nothing exists. If Claude accidentally deletes your production database, it may well apologize afterward, but only because an apology is statistically likely. It doesn't f […]

An intuitive explanation for why reasoning tokens help is to remember that LLMs are just mathmatical functions f() that take in an input sequence x and produces the next token f(x). Without reasoning tokens, you require the function f() to immediately take you from x to the start of an output sequence that is a correct answer. With reasoning tokens, this is much relaxed, allowing for many repeated applications of f() to gradually steer you from the input sequence to the start of the correct output sequence.

It seems intuitive that continuing a correct output sequence is easier than the "discontinuity" of jumping from the input prompt to the output sequence.

There is a long history of bad naming conventions in the field of AI, including “artificial intelligence” itself imo. (What is “intelligence” here? It’s more like “automation” or “automated problem solving”.)

What really happens is that we figure out something that works, sometimes inspired by some biological thing or neuroscience thing.

Examples: neural network, attention, reasoning, hallucination, agents, experts in “mixture of experts”.

And then we go to name it, and rather than reaching for some three letter acronym we sometimes borrow a more catchy term.

I almost never means the original research was confused about what is going on. And in some cases we eventually strip away things from the original, like in neural nets which used to have a more biologically inspired activation function but we found out that ReLU works just as well because the important thing was the non linearity not the sigmoid.

> This is how I make sense of AI reasoning. LRMs, chains of thought, thinking tokens: It’s wishful mnemonics all the way down — a heady mix of shorthand and suspended disbelief, like Oprah-style “manifesting” (opens a new tab) with a computer science spin. This isn’t necessarily a dig; all novel research likely requires some version of this mindset just to get off the ground. It certainly doesn’t mean AI reasoning can’t or doesn’t work. But the “wishful” part seems to be as powerful as ever.

“We react to language in a way that is very anthropomorphizing. That’s just the way that we humans work,” Mitchell told me.

I can definitely confirm the last part. Every time I read the output of an LLM, I picture a person talking to me.

The more I read about LLMs and more complex ML in general, the more I realize nobody really knows what is going on.