Models Predict the Strongest El Niño Event Ever Recorded

What's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature.

We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.

I've seen dozens of videos and articles about this strongest ever event. And I still have no clue if the next year I should evacuate from Paris for the summer because heatwaves may be even crazier than this year, or prolonged heavy rains are more likely and can make the city more livable.

I can hardly wait to see how this shakes out locally. We have had 3 La Ninas in a row that have left us with a rainfall deficit of 23.5" (597 mm) under the 20 year average annual total that I have measured here in NTexas. It's been dry overall for several years.

Considering the situation going into the 2015-2016 El Nino we were also in a multiyear drought with a rainfall deficit accumulated from 2010-2014 of over 31" (787 mm). That is just under the 20 year average annual precipitation total for my place - 36.3" (922 mm). We were missing almost a full year's rainfall over that 5 year period. I use a NOAA manual rain gauge of the type that can handle up to 11" (279.4mm) of rain before needing to be dumped. I have recently added a digital tipping gauge unit beside the manual gauge so I can have a clear comparison and track rain rates.

Anyway, if it works out like 2015 did then we went into the year with a deficit but it quickly began raining well above normal so that by mid-June we were already above the normal 20-year average rainfall total. Then it dried up with below normal rainfall from mid-June to late October. There was no rain at all between the first week of September and the last week of October. For the year though we were still 3" (76.2 mm) above the 20 year normal annual total when it started raining again.

Between the last week of October and the end of the year it rained an additional 28" (711 mm) and then it stopped and we fell behind again until finally catchi […]

Remember that you don't need AC to beat the heat - we've had other options for centuries. One of my favorites is fans.

I've lived in a hot subtropical climate most of my life. The best modes of cooling are, in order of comfort: shade, clothing, breeze, fans, A/C.

Our rather large home didn't have A/C when we bought it. But it did have a huge attic fan that kept the air moving throughout the entire house on hot days. That worked fine from the time the house was built in about 1930 to present (yes, it's still there). At one point we installed a few window units in designated rooms but they were never necessary.

shade - Even on a hot day it's very comfortable in tree-shaded areas. The trees cool the air.

clothes - wear light-colored clothes with fabrics that wick perspiration.

breeze - if you live in an area with a constant breeze, you'll be more comfortable. Sometimes that comes with a caveat: watch out for storms associated with coastal breezes (such as hurricanes).

fans - sometimes a small room fan is just right. Or if you live someplace where you can pay someone to wave a palm frond around you all day, so much the better.

A/C may seem to be the best but imo it isn't b/c it is not transparent: other people are always messing with the controls, there are insufficent/incorrectly-demarcated "zones" in a building, the humidity varies unsuitably, condensation forms in unexpected areas (even inside walls and under floors) and you don't find out for 12 years, etc.

Other than "numbers go up" it's unclear to me what the consequences are, as I'm not extremely familiar with El Niño events. Hurricanes, maybe?

Wow, this thing should be nicknamed "El Hombre"

There are three possible scenarios for the next decades:

1) return to preindustrial level of pollution, possibility less than 1/10000

2) make radical changes suggested by scientists, less than 1/100

3) continue with the current pace

The pyramid of pollution, which is directly proportional to the pyramid of wealth, is almost impossible to shrink as the latter is also inevitable.

Just brace for impact.

We all know we’re way past the time where we need to cut the carbon emissions, like it was 30 years ago. Why aren’t the governments investing money on research on carbon capture technology? That’s the only way left to undo massive carbon emissions due to industrialisation

Does this mean California is more likely to get mega flooding?