The US Grocery Slowdown Is Real: A New Phase of Consumer Pressure

I'm not surprised. K shaped economy, any sector that isn't high tech / AI is stagnant. It's rough out there. I've been saying since Covid, retailers have figured out some consumers aren't as price sensitive as previously thought. WholeFoods doesn't need to cut prices, but the lower tier grocery stores will really feel the cutbacks.

> Our analysis of NielsenIQ grocery data shows a trend in negative unit growth starting in mid-2025, masked by steady price increases. But since February 2026, units have stepped down sharply enough to pull sales lower across the US. Prices are still climbing 2% to 3% year over year,

Seems pretty straightforward. They increased their price to try and make up for losses, which in turn mean less people purchasing, which they responded to by increasing prices. A lovely little circle.

Maybe some economists should investigate how prices effects demand, could be groundbreaking.

Not sure a cut of $186m between 2025 and 2034 warrants the cavalier description -- "benefits were scaled back" -- of changes to SNAP in the BBB.

In the immediate term, "Approximately 4 million people in a typical month will lose some or all of their SNAP food benefits once the changes are fully implemented, based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates." according to the Center on Policy and Budget Priorities. [1] I'm not sure what is going to happen in my community (rural Virginia with a good portion of federal and federal-adjacent retirees living here full-time) as people continue to be kicked off SNAP. Food pantries are serving more people than at the beginning of 2025. I've not investigated the status of donations. But anecdotally, friends are giving fewer food items to emergency pantries.

But as is the case with other aid programs, there is a public benefit to public benefits: "Here’s the remarkable thing about SNAP: it’s one of the highest return investments the government makes. According to USDA Economic Research Service data, every $1 in SNAP benefits generates approximately $1.50 to $1.80 in economic activity. During the Great Recession, that multiplier reached $1.84." The question is, with the reduction in people served coupled with work requirements, will the follow-on economic benefits be realized between now and 2034? How will low-income households fare?

[1] https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/many-low-incom...

[2] https://polimetrics.substack.c […]

What is interesting is the subnational breakdown - volumes have been decreasing in the US West for over a year compared to the rest of the US, and overall sales have also decreased as well whereas they are stagnant in the rest of the US.

Consumers have been optimizing for convenience over being value shoppers.

Grocery prices at Aldi, Walmart, Costco are amazingly low, especially when accounting for the freshness, quality, and variety of foods today vs. 30 years ago.

Theoretically I'm kinda rich, but I feel the crunch at the grocery store.

I buy the highest quality, lowest cost stuff I can find.

There can be a positive story here maybe though:

- More doordash = less grocery

- More farmer's market = less grocery

- More home-grown = less grocery

Though TFA points out,

80% of Americans say they're still trying to spend less

28% are actively trying to cut back on groceries

56% are trading down to lower-priced brands

49% are simply buying fewer items,

44% are leaning harder on coupons and promotions

BTW my nearest grocery shut down this quarter. Couldn't make money. Got to go farther now.

Shelves are fairly spotty in my town. Never saw that before, not in 50 years.