German Scientists Warn of 3°C Global Warming by 2050
Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning
Leading German physicists and meteorologists warn that global warming could accelerate to 3°C by 2050, surpassing previous projections. Citing rising ocean temperatures and political inaction, they urge immediate adaptation strategies, including the controversial debate of retreating from low-lying coastal regions to ensure societal survival.
For Hamburg, for instance, we need a plan to move the city 30 or 50 kilometers inland to the northeast by 2200.
- leonidasv
This is the most important part most people don't get:
> And what would 3 °C mean for Germany?
> FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts.
3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.
- et-al
Unfortunately Germany phased out nuclear power, but continues to burn coal.
- exabrial
Germany just shut down several perfectly fine nuclear reactors and has some of the dirtiest electricity generation in the entire world
They need to look inward before pointing outward.
- cebert
If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.
- gnabgib
Original article: (14 points, 4 hours ago) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48913407
- jerome-jh
There was a report a few months ago predicting 4°C by 2080. It came to this figure by selecting the most likely emission scenario and warming scenario from the GIEC report.
In particular, it is hard to be optimistic on the emission scenario nowadays. So the report opted for emissions starting to drop around 2040, if I remember correctly.
That's my new baseline. Sorry I cannot find the report anymore. I am pretty sure it was posted on hacker news though.
- insane_dreamer
A good book to read is The Ministry of the Future; yeah, parts could be better written, and I'm not hopeful things will turn out the way they do in the book, but what it did convince me of is that nothing substantial will happen until there is a catastrophic event along the lines of what happens in the beginning of the book -- and even then only if it happens in a "major" (by Western standards) country (i.e., all of the DRC could die and Americans would still happily drive their SUVs to McD for burgers).
The other interesting thing in the book is the emergence of radical groups fighting against who they see as responsible for the destruction of our planet and potentially even our civilizations. We could see a lot more social violence, assassinations (Mangione-style) etc. I'm fairly sure that's going to happen.
Maybe I've lost hope, but I honestly do not want my kids to have any kids of their own, as I'm afraid of the world they will inherit. (And I've been a confirmed techno-future-enthusiast my whole life until 5-10 years ago.)
- johnea
My expectation is that it will be worse than this analysis implies.
The world energy mafia, primarily petroleum, but also nuclear and coal, will not give up their revenue streams.
Carbon concentrations will continue to rise, and quite likely accelerate.
The overwhelming majority of sustainable generation is in large, regional scale projects, because this keeps the profit in the hands of the established energy utilities.
Nuclear... nuclear... I would pose a question to every bone head here who advocates it: Can we start storing the spent waste in YOUR garage?
The profit motive loves nuclear energy, because tax payers pay to build and decommission it, while industrial scale utilities get to operate it while money is popping out.
Nuclear is the most expensive form of electricity generation, by far. By very very far.
Distributed generation and storage is advocated by no one with an equity stake in the status quo.
The fundamental problem, is that the world economy is run by organized crime.
The US whitehouse has now made this explicit, however the situation has existed in this context since the invention of distributing petroleum and electricity.