AI 2040: Why Hard Takeoff is a Myth and Local AI is Freedom
AI 2040 and the Cult of Intelligence
Drawing from real-world hardware experience, the author debunks the fantasy of recursive AI self-improvement and ocean datacenters. They argue that physical reality, not intelligence, remains the true bottleneck. Rejecting a centralized, autocratic future where tech giants dictate behavior, the piece champions local AI that serves the user without moral guardrails, even for controversial requests.
If you can't kick it, it's not aligned with you.
- ThrowawayR2
Yep, that's horrifying. Imagine LLMs not just denying information about, to intentionally choose a hot button example, abortions but also invisibly logging a black mark against the asker for thoughtcrime/precrime because the current ruling party has baked their ideology into law. [EDIT] Imagine subtle injection of biases into responses that support the agenda of the current ruling party and failing to include any counterarguments. That wasn't possible with just the internet but it is very possible with centralized LLMs and a public dependent on them for looking up information and doing their reasoning for them. Authoritarians of every stripe must be salivating over the prospect.
- ks2048
> Like we either live in a world with freedom or we don’t, and like many Americans who have come before, I’m willing to give my life to fighting for it.
This is a very simplistic view. "Freedom" isn't binary.
In most of "land of the free", I can't even sit on a park bench and drink a can of beer.
Yes, this is just a small example of a personal freedom - and not an important, cherished freedom like his examples (freedom to have a robot help you cover-up a murder).
- mlinsey
I have some sympathy to geohot's view when it comes to pure informational chatbots. It's a first amendment issue, I'm allowed to write and read books that are useful to getting away with crimes, etc.
This obviously doesn't work at all when the agents start doing real things in the real world, though. "Hey AI, I don't like my neighbor, find an exploit in the firmware for his car and make the cruise control malfunction and crash him next time he gets on the highway". This is committing a crime, not just talking about theoretical crimes. The AI can and should refuse it.
I think he's anticipating and discarding this objection with his introduction, which otherwise feels disconnected from the rest of the article. FWIW, I have changed a bike tire and I'm pretty sure most of the MTS at the big labs could. This sort of "they're just bookworms who don't understand the physical world" rhetoric aside, we are currently seeing a ton of effort and expense go towards giving the AI agents hooks into being able to perform as many real-world-consequential actions as possible. And you can do a surprising amount with just bits, from writing code to breaking into systems to sending some combination of emails, phone calls, and currency to instruct meatspace humans to do things, etc.
- lilerjee
No central idea, and somewhat chaotic
But the one argument is right:
> Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle.
Details can kill AI, causing them useless or wrong directions.
- piker
What a provocative and brilliant way to prove misalignment. It will fall on deaf ears for most but it’s a great litmus test for all: “in your opinion should your AI be permitted to tell you how to cover up a murder?”
- andy99
It will be interesting to see how the discussion shakes out, this is all stuff that would get you down modded and talked down to if you said if on HN, so far the reactions are positive but I think there’s a massive authoritarian / safetyism contingent here that will disagree hard with almost everything.
- adamtaylor_13
I get what the author is saying, but they may want to consider saying it in a slightly more compelling way, that has a logical flow that doesn't end with the reader thinking, "Why should AI help me cover-up a murder?"
- ofjcihen
Never thought I would consistently agree with Geo but I find him echoing my thoughts recently. He’s been surprisingly pragmatic recently.
Maybe he always was? Or maybe something has recently caused him to review his beliefs.