37% of U.S. Workers Saw Real Wages Fall from 2021–2024, Study Finds
New paper shows that 37% of workers in US saw real wages decline from 2021-2024 [pdf]
A new working paper from the University of Chicago and ADP Research uses payroll data on 16 million U.S. workers to show that most firms kept annual raises anchored to pre-inflation norms, causing real wages to fall for many job-stayers. 43% of workers who stayed with the same employer saw real wage declines, with an average loss of 9%. Job-changers fared better, but not enough to offset the overall trend: 37% of all workers experienced real wage declines from 2021 to 2024. The paper argues that incomplete wage indexation, not inflation itself, explains persistent consumer dissatisfaction.
Even accounting for job-changers, 37 percent of all workers saw real wages decline over the 4-year period.
- culi
The other interesting finding here is that only 57% of these "job stayers" beat or matched inflation, while 43% suffered a real wage cut. A huge chunk of the people who's wages beat inflation only did so due to job hopping
- mikert89
Would love to see this calculated in high cost of living areas (NY, CA), pretty sure some people have seen 20% wage declines since covid (in terms of how far your income goes)
- sssilver
What 2021-2024?
Check the prices of the flagship 1975 Ferrari, the flagship 1975 Hasselblad camera, or, I don't know, a 1975 Cessna 182 in reference to median 1975 household income.
Then check it again for 2026.
Oh, but we have GPS, Amazon Prime, and doomscrolling now.
Thanks, I'd rather take the Cessna.
- spike021
I guess RSUs aren't really "real wages" but mine vested over four years to the extent that by the time I left they were worth barely 25% of what they had been when I signed the offer. Happened over time, too, so quarterly vests took a decent hit in that timeframe.
- missedthecue
So 63% didn't. I wonder what the average netted out to. Increase or decrease and how much?
- WalterBright
The paper only mentions total compensation as: "total compensation (base wages plus bonuses)"
Total compensation includes stock options, stock grants, health insurance premiums, 401k contributions, so-called "employer social security contributions", retirement contributions, time off with pay, etc. Total compensation averages 146% of wages.
This is not a triviality.
The paper doesn't cover this, and so the conclusions don't have merit.
- bjt12345
For the Tech sector, inflation speeds up companies crashes as staff leave for startups due to wages being extraordinarily "sticky-up" in large companies.
- cyb_
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
> Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over
> 1982-84 CPI Adjusted Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted
> Data measure usual weekly earnings of wage and salary workers. Wage and salary workers are workers who receive wages, salaries, commissions, tips, payment in kind, or piece rates.