OpenAI's Ad Revenue Forecast Misses Analyst Predictions by 90%
OpenAI's Ad Business Is on Pace to Miss Its Own Forecast by 90%, Analyst Says
OpenAI projects $100 billion in ad revenue by 2030, but Emarketer data suggests the entire U.S. chatbot ad market will barely reach $5.41 billion. This massive gap indicates OpenAI is on pace to miss its own five-year forecast by 90%, challenging the assumption that AI chatbots will quickly dominate traditional search advertising budgets.
The forecast assumes OpenAI captures search ad budgets en masse from traditional search ad sellers, dominates a fully mature chatbot ad market, and outperforms every ad format in history–all at once.
- dependsontheq
There are only two successful ad business forms in the digital world, attention or intent. Meta is built on attention and Google and others like amazon are built on intent.
Everything else is optimizing the targetting data in some kind of behavioral way to get better intent data or to reach the right users.
I have no idea where something like Chatgpt stands on that axis, it has actually very little attention (in hours per day) for most people and I am not sure that it has enough intent signals.
- ArtTimeInvestor
Emarketer’s data finds that standalone chatbots like ChatGPT,
Microsoft Copilot app, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for
Shopping (formerly Rufus) in U.S, will generate less than $1
billion in ad revenue this year, and just $5.41 billion by 2030.
How would that be possible? In the past I used Google maybe 10 times a day with a short query. From which Google had to guess my intent. Now I babble with Gemini all day about everything. And Gemini can ask questions what exactly I mean. Why wouldn't Alphabet be able to generate more revenue from this than from search? And Google's ad revenue from search is over $100B per year.
Just because there are no ads now does not mean there never will be. Google search was run without ads for the first years too.
- ozlikethewizard
Ignoring whether or not OpenAI can reach this, do we think a massive expansion of ad revenue is fruit of the poisonous tree for GPTs? Does anyone want to use a tool that is capable of disguising an ad as a geniune recommendation at anytime? I suppose if the platforms become super entrenched and we boil slowly then they'll get away with it
- sauercrowd
Why does it have to be ad revenue though? A forecast of ad revenue alone being below expectations really doesn't say much about a company like openAi
- Havoc
Wouldn't be surprised if there is utter panic behind the scenes.
They somehow need to corner many billions of business meanwhile chinese labs reckon they'll have fable class models by end of the year. [0]
That does not leave a lot of room for mistakes. I reckon they'll get government to block chinese models just like the US car industry did with EVs.
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...