The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Probably Not Real

The Dunning-Kruger effect may just be a data artefact (2020)

The Dunning-Kruger effect, a celebrated theory that incompetent people overestimate their abilities, may be a statistical artifact rather than a real cognitive bias. This article investigates the original 1999 study and subsequent critiques, including simulations showing that random data can reproduce the effect's signature graph. Experts argue that measurement error in self-assessment, not a flaw in human reasoning, explains the phenomenon. The piece also clarifies common misconceptions, such as the effect applying to everyone, not just the unskilled, and distinguishes it from related biases like overconfidence.