Models Predict the Strongest El Niño Event Ever Recorded

The Strongest El Niño Ever

Models Predict the Strongest El Niño Event Ever Recorded

I am genuinely shocked by the latest forecasts showing this year's El Niño could dwarf all previous records. With a multi-model median peak of 3.6C, it is set to exceed the 2015-16 event by a massive margin. The rapid intensification from La Niña conditions suggests 2027 will likely become the warmest year on record by a significant distance.

The models are forecasting something outside the envelope of anything we have ever observed.

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2026-07-26