2x, not 10x: The Real Impact of Coding with LLMs in 2026
2x, not 10x: coding with LLMs in 2026
I argue that LLMs offer a realistic 2x productivity boost rather than the promised 10x, as they excel at automated feedback loops but struggle with code maintainability and documentation. While I use them to generate rough drafts, the heavy lifting of structuring and refining code remains a human task. Future gains will likely come from retooling workflows around current capabilities rather than waiting for model breakthroughs to solve fundamental limitations.
A working implementation used to mean a task was 80% done; now it's more like 20%.
- cyanregiment
0.25x because I scope bigger now and then I may get a few "free" React components but largely doing all that work of putting it together.
- msephton
Does the number × depend on how big your thinking is? If you are only 2× then you need to think bigger, aim higher, etc. I think the limit on the 2× is not the ai?
- lazopm
The way I see it you should calibrate the way you work with LLMs based on how confident you are on that specific area, and if it's your responsibility to own/understand it. Here's how it feels for me:
* Learning stage: 0.5x - 1x. I change my system prompt to teacher mode, taking the productivity hit for actually learning the system/tool pays off dividends later. I change my system prompt to "teacher mode" and slowly loosen it as I get more confident.
* Working-knowledge: 2x - 3x. Once I am ramped up enough I feel like I can get a decent productivity boost. Most of the time is spent at the planning stage. This is my mode for areas I don't really own or care about, just need to get work done.
* Mastered: 10x+ I have been doing web front end for 12+ years, I can quickly review plan/implementations and for my initial prompt I already know most of what I want built.
1x == my speed before AI
- gashad
This reminds me of themes I recently saw in [Harness Engineering is not Enough: Why Software Factories Fail](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ib5GBkD555M) (Warning: the last 3 slides seem like an advertisement). One thing I liked is how Dex has a little graphic he glossed over showing software development is
- 25% planning & aligning with other teams
- 25% coding
- 25% testing/verifying
- 25% code review/rework
One argument was that agentic coding speeds up that coding part a bunch. So maybe there's 2x speedup in coding. But that's only a small speedup in the totality of everything software engineers do.
- watso
You still have to know what you’re doing. That came from years of doing it by hand. Where is that necessary experience going to come from for the current and future generations of juniors?