SCN Global Flow Monitor - Simulate oil trade disruptions with real data
Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
SCN Global Flow Monitor is a powerful simulation tool that models global supply chain dynamics using real UN Comtrade data. It allows users to stress-test critical scenarios, such as a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, to visualize impacts on market prices, downstream flow losses, and emergency stockpile drawdowns. By leveraging fluid-stochastic network clearing and endogenous pricing models, this tool provides a coherent physical scenario analysis without relying on forecasts. It is an essential resource for understanding how bypass pipelines and capacity retention strategies affect global oil trade resilience under extreme disruption.
SIMULATION — stress test, not a forecast: We model worst coherent physical scenarios to reveal how supply chain networks truly react when critical chokepoints collapse.
- HarHarVeryFunny
What concrete predictions does your model make?
What developments in pricing/other would indicate that your model is wrong or incomplete?
Nice website regardless, but I'm a bit skeptical that the dynamics of the global oil/energy market can be accurately predicted.
- firasd
Very interesting. Here in India people were very concerned about potential cooking gas shortages (LPG) when the disruptions began which is also a good example of usually-overlooked dependencies on the the Strait
- sebzuddas
What modelling approach are you using, and where can I learn more about it? Really cool, btw.