AI 2040: Plan A to Avoid Existential Catastrophe
AI 2040: Plan A
We propose Plan A, a bold strategy to delay superintelligence until 2040 through total research transparency and international cooperation. By avoiding a reckless race between AI companies like OpenAI and Google DeepMind, humanity can scale safely, prevent power concentration, and ensure a flourishing future rather than facing extinction or global dictatorship.
"We do not expect humans to maintain effective control as their AIs become superintelligent."
HN discussion
- Practitioners observe that AI agents have rapidly evolved from unreliable, short-duration script execution to managing complex, multi-hour full-stack application deployments across dozens of subagents with minimal failure rates.
- Critics argue that the article relies on 'inevitablism' by assuming LLMs will inevitably lead to AGI, ignoring scenarios where the technology becomes a niche tool or investment collapses, while simultaneously masking Western chauvinism.
- Skeptics contend that physical robotics remain unsolved for civilian settings, noting that while drones are concerning, no one has successfully deployed robots to deliver packages to front porches reliably.
- Commenters challenge the geopolitical premise of the plan, suggesting that enforcing Chinese compliance is nearly impossible and that the narrative of Western technological superiority ignores the historical context of colonialism and surveillance.
- Some users dismiss the existential risk narrative as a 'just so story,' arguing that technology historically aligns government incentives with human prosperity through material dynamics rather than requiring restrictive laws or fear-based agendas.